Here’s a riddle about the one-child policy in China. The person who posts the right answer first as a comment gets a prize. There may also be runner-up prizes for other correct answers.
1. China has a one-child policy. Traditionally, boys have been favored over girls because girls often leave the family when they marry, whereas boys tend to support their aging parents. However, abortion for this purpose is illegal. Assuming everyone has only one child, how will the distribution of boys vs. girls be in the next generation. (Hint: try using probability of getting a boy = 0.50, then try again using a number smaller than 0.5)
2. In actuality, rural families, if they do not have a boy for their first child, may try for a second child. Urban families can only have one child, however, no matter the gender. How will component of the rule affect the proportion of boys to girls?
3. One more caveat: families may choose to have a second child, but they must pay an additional tax. How do you think this will affect the gender distribution, in comparison to other countries?